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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2387 Tech Company Valuations 892 Big tech & chips 608 Space 459 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,500 markets · page 6 of 188

Manifold· Play

Open

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will attempt at least one orbit?

IFT 1470¢

13 outcomes

Ɱ13.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? — 1510+

‹ Prev1…45678…188Next ›

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$13.2K Vol▲ 9pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$57.2K Vol▼ 7pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Andrej Karpathy leave Anthropic in 2026?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ3.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of July?

Moonshot79¢

29 outcomes

$40.9K Vol▲ 1pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026? — Before September

The market is heavily betting against a 2026 confirmation, but the real story is that a formal protocol for disclosure exists (USA Today, Jun 16) and a celebrity endorsement of UFOs (Entertainment Weekly, Jun 10) has not shifted institutional silence, leaving the 1% odds reflecting extreme skepticism rather than any new evidence.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an Anthropic model autonomously hack an external entity in 2026?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ745 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?

Person 150¢

93 outcomes

$73K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Top Coding AI this week

Kimi94¢

9 outcomes

$21.6K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Manifold· Play

Open

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

The market is betting against a perfect score (67% No) despite recent open-source models reaching gold-medal level, because a perfect score requires solving all six problems—a feat no AI has ever achieved and even top human contestants rarely accomplish.

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ71.3K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

Anthropic96¢

26 outcomes

$372K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 16

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$55.9K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ39.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? — 1500+

Yes30¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$9.5K Vol▲ 6pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

551¢

10 outcomes

$25.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ41.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Precipitation in London in July?

<30mm97¢

7 outcomes

$9.7K Vol▼ 1pts4d

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$125K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

Yes85¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$11.2K Vol▲ 11pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

The field is unusually fragmented for a long-range market, with no single candidate above 15% and the top three summing only 41%, reflecting deep uncertainty about which AI or space bet will dominate by 2030. The biggest recent shift is the rise of Anthropic to 13%, likely tied to the broader AI arms race narrative, though no specific headline directly explains its move.

Nvidia15¢

27 outcomes

Ɱ116K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.36 on Jul 31? — Above $7.36

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes22¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$2.1K Vol▲ 8pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ81 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$66.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo