AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,423 markets · page 5 of 185
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market shows a 16% chance of official U.S. confirmation of aliens by 2028, a relatively high probability given the lack of any credible official statement in recent headlines; the odds appear driven more by media coverage of prediction markets than by concrete developments.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
9 outcomes
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
The field is unusually fragmented for a long-range market, with no single candidate above 15% and the top three summing only 41%, reflecting deep uncertainty about which AI or space bet will dominate by 2030. The biggest recent shift is the rise of Anthropic to 13%, likely tied to the broader AI arms race narrative, though no specific headline directly explains its move.
27 outcomes
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Yes ≈ 77% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance