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AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
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SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
The field is a binary certainty: the market is 100% sure SpaceX's closing market cap will exceed $2T but 0% sure it will exceed $3T, implying a narrow expected range despite a volatile post-IPO trajectory that saw a 49% rally followed by a $400B loss and a fizzle near the IPO price. The biggest recent shift: the >$3T probability collapsed from a non-zero level to 0% after the post-IPO hangover (Business Insider, Jun 23).
>$2T100¢
2 outcomes
$20.1M Vol 0pts1y