Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 188 | PredictPal · PredictPal

💻

Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2439 Tech Company Valuations 910 Big tech & chips 627 Space 474 Science 278 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,587 markets · page 188 of 192

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…186187188189190…192Next ›

Open

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ75 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ261 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

The market is heavily betting against Bryan Caplan winning his bet, implying that AI will pass his exams by 2029, despite Caplan's historic betting success highlighted in a 2023 Guardian article.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ70.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Can AI grow corn?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ322 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will ai.com change hands by EOY?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ214 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Elon Musk tries to make a space station in next 4 years?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ852 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ675 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ750 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ504 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

The market expects a dramatic tenfold improvement from the current 3% automation rate (ZDNET, Jan 19) to 30-40%, but the wide spread of probabilities suggests deep uncertainty about whether the leap will be incremental or explosive.

30-40%26¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ33.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2800?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ972 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?

Falcon 997¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ253 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ180 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ215 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y