Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
9 markets
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be a Space National Guard established in the USA by the start of 2028?
Yes28¢
No72¢
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Ɱ60 Vol 0pts1y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?
Yes42¢
No58¢
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Ɱ359 Vol 0pts3y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be 30 people in space at any moment before 2030?
Yes27¢
No73¢
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Ɱ351 Vol 0pts3y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?
Yes11¢
No89¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Ɱ9.1K Vol 0pts3y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?
Yes28¢
No72¢
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Ɱ1.5K Vol 0pts13y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be an orgy in space by the end of 2030?
Despite the playful premise, the 10% odds reflect a near-total absence of any credible pathway to an orbital or deep-space orgy by 2030, with recent headlines focused entirely on terrestrial sex festivals and a destroyed Burning Man dome rather than any space-related development.
Yes10¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Ɱ778 Vol 0pts4y
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Ɱ630 Vol 0pts5mo
Manifold· Play
Open
Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
Yes22¢
No78¢
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Ɱ1.9K Vol 0pts3y