Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
40 markets · page 1 of 2
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Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?
Yes83¢
No17¢
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Ɱ1.7K Vol 0pts11mo
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will people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Yes70¢
No30¢
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Ɱ6.1K Vol 0pts1y
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Will space exploration and commercialization be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?
Yes72¢
No28¢
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Ɱ74 Vol 0pts3y
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Will openAI retain >50% chatbot market share through 2030?
Yes32¢
No68¢
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Ɱ907 Vol 0pts4y
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GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?
Yes56¢
No44¢
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Ɱ133 Vol 0pts1y
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Kidnapping in space any time through 2030
Yes5¢
No95¢
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Ɱ1.7K Vol 0pts4y
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Returned space traveler arrested upon landing in the US any time through 2031
Despite the recent high-profile return of the Artemis II crew without incident, the market assigns only a 10% chance that any space traveler will be arrested upon landing in the US by 2031, reflecting the complete absence of any such event in history and the lack of any credible threat in the headlines.
Yes10¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Ɱ292 Vol 0pts4y
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Will there be a cat on Mars any time through 2036?
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Ɱ1.4K Vol 0pts10y
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Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?
Yes30¢
No70¢
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Ɱ382 Vol 0pts1y
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Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026
Yes12¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Ɱ1.2K Vol 0pts10mo
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Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
Yes81¢
No19¢
Yes ≈ 81% chance
Ɱ1.3K Vol 0pts3y
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Will Chelsea Voss still be at OpenAI through EOY 2026?
Yes69¢
No31¢
Yes ≈ 69% chance
Ɱ61 Vol 0pts5mo
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Will there be a dog on Mars any time through 2036?
Yes13¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Ɱ231 Vol 0pts10y
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Musk, Zuck, or Bezos physically fight someone in space anytime through 2031
Yes6¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Ɱ2.1K Vol 0pts5y
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Police force in space any time through 2033
Yes9¢
No91¢
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Ɱ346 Vol 0pts7y
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Apple's Advanced Data Protection feature remains available in the United States through December 31, 2028
Yes64¢
No36¢
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Ɱ325 Vol 0pts2y
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Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Yes35¢
No65¢
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Ɱ5.9K Vol 0pts2y
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Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026
Yes38¢
No62¢
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Ɱ197 Vol 0pts5mo
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Funeral in space with body committed to space through 2034
Yes12¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Ɱ305 Vol 0pts8y
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In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?
Yes27¢
No73¢
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Ɱ1.8K Vol 0pts4y
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Will Extropic AI ever have more than 100m revenue in a year through mid 2029?
Yes6¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Ɱ3K Vol 0pts2y