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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 7 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2361 Tech Company Valuations 881 Big tech & chips 602 Space 450 Science 266 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,459 markets · page 7 of 186

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes22¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$2.1K Vol▲ 8pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…56789…186Next ›

Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ508 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Oklo

Oklo is trailing behind other advanced nuclear projects in the criticality race, with only ten days left and no public confirmation of its schedule, making a Yes resolution highly unlikely at current odds.

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$44.1K Vol▼ 3pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+

Yes66¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 13

Despite a lack of recent headlines directly tracking July launch counts, the market is pricing near-certainty that U.S. commercial operators will exceed 13 launches, likely reflecting an already achieved or well-advanced cadence as the month winds down.

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 1pts12d

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$2.2K Vol▼ 18pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

The market's 6% Yes reflects the immense gap between Starship's current test-flight phase and the 500-launch target, compounded by a recent FAA grounding that halts progress.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ235K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026? — Before November

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$47.6K Vol▲ 1pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

The market heavily discounts OpenAI hitting 65% on Humanity's Last Exam in 2026, despite a string of recent AI breakthroughs in math and coding, because the exam is designed to be extremely difficult and no model has yet come close to that threshold.

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$1.9K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ882 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 6000

Despite a rise in measles cases that is on track to exceed last year's total, the threshold of 6,000 cases remains extremely unlikely given that even the worst recent year (2019) saw only 1,282 cases, explaining the 85% No odds.

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$160K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

090¢

7 outcomes

$7.1K Vol▲ 5pts14h

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ11.1K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

9-1167¢

5 outcomes

$62.3K Vol▼ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

When will MNX mainnet launch?

The field is highly concentrated on July and August 2026 (78% combined), with the pre-seed funding announcement in June likely shifting confidence toward these near-term months and compressing earlier possibilities.

July 202641¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ103K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1500

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#1 Searched Passings on Google 2026?

Person 150¢

70 outcomes

$27.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.100¢

95 outcomes

Ɱ66.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Price to Beat: 0.49

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest93¢

4 outcomes

$113K Vol▼ 2pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot by mid 2027 for US markets

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ851 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Kalshi

Open

What will be the price of a foldable iPhone? — At least $2200

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

$47.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo