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New to prediction markets? Start here. Short, neutral explainers — no jargon, no trading required.
What is a prediction market?A plain-language intro: markets where the price of an outcome IS the crowd's estimate of its probability.How to read the oddsCents = probability. What “65¢” means, what the words “likely/coin-toss” map to, and how calibrated it is.Why do different venues disagree?The same question can be priced differently on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold — here's why, and what Consensus does.How markets resolveThe #1 beginner gotcha: a market settles under its own rules, which can lag what looks decided on TV.