AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
386 markets · page 4 of 17
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Despite a general uptick in disaster awareness from recent flooding and rebuilding stories, the odds remain low because the specific high-impact events required for a 'Yes' resolution (Category 5 hurricane landfall, major meteor, VEI≥6 volcano, 8.5+ earthquake) are historically rare, and no imminent threat has been identified.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on the top two ranks (1st and 2nd) with a combined 97% probability, but the recent shift from a near-tie in mid-July to a clear 55% lead for rank 2 suggests that mid-year temperature data is solidifying 2026 as very hot but likely not record-breaking, driven by NOAA and NASA tracking (MSN, Jul 19).
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 23% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on the under (<5 and 5-6) at 81%, a sharp shift upward after a single V3 launch success in May 2026 — which was the first Starship to reach space in 2026 — dramatically compressed expectations that the vehicle could achieve cadence, moving mass from the 7-8+ outcomes into the <5 bucket.
8 outcomes
14 outcomes
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three candidates summing to 63%, but the single biggest recent shift is the consolidation of expectation around a three-week window from July 17 to July 30, driven by multiple reports that Gemini 3.5 Pro originally targeted late June—then slipped to July, and now appears to have a final architecturally-rebuilt launch date of July 17 (Tech Times, 2026-07-08).
32 outcomes
The market sees a 10% chance of another GTA 6 delay, but the real story is that after a confirmed postponement from May to November 2026, pre-orders have begun and the publisher is publicly doubling down on the new date, making a further slip unlikely but not impossible.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
The field is extremely concentrated on July 2026 being the hottest on record at 91%, with the only meaningful alternative being a 3rd-place finish at 7%, as a series of regional heat waves in the U.S. Northeast in late June/early July 2026 (CBS News, Jun 30; NJ.com, Jul 2) likely pushed global land-ocean temperatures higher, while no headline suggests a competing cool anomaly that would knock it below the top 3.
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 72% chance
The market strongly expects the U.S. will stay below 10,000 measles cases in 2026 despite ongoing domestic and international outbreaks, because recent clusters remain localized and far from sustained nationwide transmission.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
The market's 28% Yes reflects deep skepticism that any AI model will achieve a 1520 Arena Score by September 2026, likely because current top scores are far below that threshold and the pace of improvement, as indicated by the Stanford report on China's catch-up, does not suggest a sudden leap.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance