Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: IFT 14 at about a 70% chance — likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation. I will add an IFT 7 if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction) If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply. If SpaceX announces before IFT 5 that IFT 6 will orbit, IFT 6 would be the one to resolve YES. If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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