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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 8 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

11,157 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 8 of 417

Futuur

Open

Michigan Governor election winner

Democratic Party74¢

2 outcomes

$177 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?

‹ Prev1…678910…417Next ›

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$466K Vol▲ 9pts5d

Kalshi

Open

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

D-House, D-Senate43¢

4 outcomes

$8.4M Vol▼ 1pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ15.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Balance of Power After the 2026 Midterms

Democrats Senate + Democrats House 45¢

5 outcomes

£1.4K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Futuur

Open

Next Justice to leave the US Supreme Court

Clarence Thomas21¢

9 outcomes

$107 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Iran leadership change by July 31?

The market heavily discounts a leadership change by July 31 despite recent speculation about US and Israeli regime-change efforts, because the actual mechanism for removing Mojtaba Khamenei within days appears nonexistent. The real story is that foreign pressure is rising, but internal Iranian political dynamics and the sheer speed required make a 'Yes' resolution extremely unlikely.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$1.2M Vol▼ 1pts4d

InsightX

Open

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

July 319¢

2 outcomes

$8M Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Texas Senate winner?

Ken Paxton57¢

2 outcomes

$6.2M Vol▲ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by election?

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

Ɱ9.2K Vol▲ 0pts18d

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Snap 2027 Election

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

£1.4K Vol▲ 1pts1y

Futuur

Open

North Carolina's Senate election winner

Democratic Party83¢

2 outcomes

$99 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

The market is pricing a 56% chance of normal Hormuz traffic by year-end, but recent headlines emphasize persistent geopolitical risks and a 12-month recovery timeline, suggesting the odds may be overly optimistic.

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

$6M Vol▲ 4pts5mo

InsightX

Open

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

445¢

2 outcomes

$7.3M Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will James Fishback receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? — At least 1%

Fishback's candidacy hinges on a pending eligibility ruling; even if he makes the ballot, a dominant frontrunner and a crowded field make the 1% threshold uncertain.

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$329K Vol▲ 1pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Clacton By-Election - Nigel Farage To Increase Vote Share

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

£1.2K Vol▲ 0pts18d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ53.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Maine's Senate election winner

Democratic Party66¢

2 outcomes

$82 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

InsightX

Open

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 3133¢

2 outcomes

$7.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen31¢

128 outcomes

$116M Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump say "Newscum" before Jul 27, 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$36.7K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Smarkets

Open

Trump 2026 Approval Rating - Low — Trump Approval Rating Low 2026

35%33¢

4 outcomes

£1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts8mo

InsightX

Open

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 313¢

2 outcomes

$6.3M Vol▲ 0pts5mo