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Politics prediction markets & live odds | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3798 US elections 2666 Foreign politics 400 Political Leader Tenure 337 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

119 markets · page 1 of 5

Kalshi

Open

Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$226K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket🔭 2 venues

123…5Next ›

Open

Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$25.8K Vol▲ 1pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AOC be the first female US president?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$79.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Yes18¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$11.8K Vol2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ24.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Barack Obama

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027

The market heavily discounts a handshake between AI safety researcher Paul Christiano and the US president by 2027, reflecting a lack of any public pathway or recent news linking him to the White House.

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Barack Obama testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$939 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$19 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026? — Barack Obama

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$488 Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Chris Rufo endorse a democratic candidate for president before 2030?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that abolishes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a federal agency become law before Jan 1, 2027? — Abolish ICE

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

▲ 12pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Clarence Thomas

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

$35.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$10.6K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Was Barack Obama still serving as president i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ581 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

J.D. Vance becomes next US president?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting or former US President be killed by 2030?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump will be US President in 2030

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ13.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y