Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
🗂 Part of event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 56% chance — more likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply a 55% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, with a narrow 3-point spread between venues, likely due to slight differences in trader pools or liquidity.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 56% right now.
The market is pricing a 56% chance of normal Hormuz traffic by year-end, but recent headlines emphasize persistent geopolitical risks and a 12-month recovery timeline, suggesting the odds may be overly optimistic.
📊 Base rate: Historical disruptions in major chokepoints like Hormuz typically last 6-18 months, with only about 30% returning to normal within 6 months, making the current 56% odds relatively high.
What's driving it
- • A CNBC report on July 24 cited prediction markets indicating traffic may not normalize for 12 months or more, directly contradicting the market's 56% Yes probability (CNBC, Jul 24).
- • Tanker crossings hit their lowest level since May on July 24 amid US-Iran tensions, reinforcing the No case (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24).
- • Iran's seizure of a Greek tanker on July 22 escalated regional tensions, likely contributing to the 7-day +5pt move toward Yes as traders bet on a quick resolution (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22).
- • The 24-hour +4pt move suggests a short-term catalyst, but no clear headline explains it; the July 21 MSN article noted odds 'continue to tumble,' indicating prior downward momentum (MSN, Jul 21).
The case for YES
- • The IMF Portwatch threshold of 60 transit calls is relatively low compared to pre-disruption averages, making a temporary spike plausible if tensions ease suddenly.
- • Diplomatic efforts or a de-escalation agreement could quickly restore traffic, as seen in past Hormuz incidents where disruptions resolved within weeks.
- • The market's 7-day upward trend (+5pts) suggests some traders anticipate a near-term resolution, possibly based on unpublicized negotiations.
The case for NO
- • Multiple headlines from July 24 emphasize a 12-month recovery timeline, far exceeding the December 31 deadline (CNBC, EnergyNow.com, Jul 24).
- • Iran's tanker seizure on July 22 and the lowest crossing levels since May indicate ongoing operational risks that deter shipping (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22, Jul 24).
- • The IMF Portwatch data requires a sustained 7-day moving average, not a single day's spike, making a quick return to normal less likely amid continued tensions.
What to watch
- • Any new US-Iran diplomatic talks or sanctions relief announcements would likely push odds toward Yes.
- • A further tanker seizure or military incident in the Strait would sharply increase No probability.
- • IMF Portwatch weekly data releases (every Monday) showing sustained low crossings would reinforce the No case.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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