Next Justice to leave the US Supreme Court
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Clarence Thomas at about a 21% chance.
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three (Thomas, Roberts, Kavanaugh) capturing 61%, but the single biggest recent shift is the surge in Alito speculation to 10% driven by Federal News Network's piece on retirement odds.
📊 Base rate: Since 1969, U.S. Supreme Court justices have retired or died at an average rate of about one per two years, making the current implied probability of any justice leaving within a given year roughly 5-10% per justice.
What's driving it
- • Alito's odds jumped to 10% after Federal News Network reported prediction market odds on his retirement (Federal News Network, Jul 6), suggesting traders believe political pressure or age may prompt his exit.
- • Roberts, Thomas, and Kavanaugh cluster near 20% each due to persistent speculation about political shifts (e.g., a potential Republican president enabling conservative retirements) and their ages/tenures, though no single headline directly moves them this month.
- • Sotomayor, Jackson, Gorsuch, and Kagan remain below 5%, reflecting that no recent headlines (like the new Justice Perez induction on Jun 23) signal their departure, and their ages or political environments don't encourage retirement.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Clarence Thomas leads at 21% due to his age (78) and decades of conservative activism, making him a frequent subject of retirement speculation tied to Republican control of the White House.
- • John Roberts at 20% reflects his central role on the Court and periodic rumors about stepping down under a GOP president to ensure a conservative replacement, though no recent headline confirms this.
- • Brett Kavanaugh at 20% may be driven by political alignment bets—he is relatively young (61) but seen as a potential retiree if Democrats gain power, per uncertain trader sentiment.
Why it's still open
- • Sonia Sotomayor (3%) could overtake if a Democratic president wins in 2028 and she retires for health or strategic reasons, but current odds are low as no recent headline indicates her departure.
- • Ketanji Brown Jackson (2%) is the youngest justice (56) and least likely to leave soon, yet a surprise resignation or elevation to another role (e.g., Attorney General) could spike her odds—unseen in headlines.
- • Elena Kagan (1%) has no recent catalyst for departure; she might retire only under a Democratic administration, but with no such event imminent, her odds are minimal.
What to watch
- • 2026-07-07: The 'Stop WOKE' law Supreme Court fight (CNBC, Jul 7) could increase odds for conservative justices (Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch) if they signal retirement after a major ruling, as legacy cases near completion.
- • 2026-11-03: Midterm elections—if Republicans win the Senate or presidency, odds for Thomas, Roberts, and Alito retirements could rise sharply, while a Democratic win might suppress them.
- • 2026-12-31: End-of-year retirement announcements (common among justices) would directly move the market; any justice's health scare or public statement before then is a near-term catalyst.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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