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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3867 US elections 2746 Foreign politics 422 Political Leader Tenure 349 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 74 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

10,934 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 6 of 417

InsightX

Open

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$20.9M Vol▲ 0pts4d

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…45678…417Next ›

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63¢

32 outcomes

$116M Vol▼ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Governor of Rio de Janeiro in 2026

Eduardo Paes69¢

6 outcomes

$304 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026? — Before Aug 15, 2026

Traders are overwhelmingly betting that Strait of Hormuz transit traffic will stay below 60 through mid-August, reflecting a consensus that disruptions are not a short-term blip but a multi-year problem.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$285K Vol▲ 0pts23d

Smarkets

Open

House of Representatives To Pass Articles Of Impeachment

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

£3.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

InsightX

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

December 31, 20269¢

2 outcomes

$18.3M Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

Trump out as President by July 31?

The market is pricing a 0% chance of Trump leaving office by July 31, reflecting extreme confidence he will finish the week, despite ongoing controversies and foreign-policy tensions that have not escalated to removal proceedings.

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$2.4M Vol5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Which party will win the Clacton by-election?

Reform UK92¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ13.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Maine Senate winner? (Person)

Troy Jackson63¢

15 outcomes

$1.7M Vol▲ 1pts11mo

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Rio de Janeiro in 2026

Benedita da Silva (PT)62¢

7 outcomes

$293 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Smarkets

Open

Emmanuel Macron Resignation — Emmanuel Macron To Resign

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

£3.2K Vol▲ 0pts9mo

InsightX

Open

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Andy Burnham100¢

2 outcomes

$16.6M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Iran leadership change by July 31?

The market heavily discounts a leadership change by July 31 despite recent speculation about US and Israeli regime-change efforts, because the actual mechanism for removing Mojtaba Khamenei within days appears nonexistent. The real story is that foreign pressure is rising, but internal Iranian political dynamics and the sheer speed required make a 'Yes' resolution extremely unlikely.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$1.1M Vol▼ 2pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

The Texas Senate race is unexpectedly competitive, with a tied poll and aggressive Democratic outreach to Hispanic and Black voters challenging the state's deep-red reputation, but the GOP still holds a structural advantage in a midterm environment.

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ170K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

How many states will Trump visit in Jul 2026?

1068¢

5 outcomes

$89.2K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Futuur

Open

Georgia's Senate election winner

Democratic Party88¢

2 outcomes

$277 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Smarkets

Open

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election - Bev Craig To Win

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

£3.1K Vol▲ 0pts4d

InsightX

Open

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)56¢

2 outcomes

$15.9M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

The odds have collapsed sharply because recent official Israeli reassurances that flights won't be canceled directly contradict the market's definition of a 'major closure,' and the headlines about Iranian damage and a potential blockade haven't translated into concrete steps to close the entire airspace.

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$2.6M Vol▼ 12pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Stupid Question

The market heavily discounts a Trump 'stupid question' utterance in the next two days, despite his recent pattern of using the phrase in heated exchanges with reporters, because the specific window is very short and his recent outbursts have used 'stupid' as an adjective rather than the exact trigger phrase.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$48.6K Vol▼ 2pts1d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race in Maine?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ3.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Futuur

Open

Elected governor for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026

Luciano Zucco42¢

5 outcomes

$270 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

InsightX

Open

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$11.5M Vol▼ 0pts5mo