Iran leadership change by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Iran leadership change by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market heavily discounts a leadership change by July 31 despite recent speculation about US and Israeli regime-change efforts, because the actual mechanism for removing Mojtaba Khamenei within days appears nonexistent. The real story is that foreign pressure is rising, but internal Iranian political dynamics and the sheer speed required make a 'Yes' resolution extremely unlikely.
📊 Base rate: Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, no Supreme Leader has been removed from power or resigned within a single week, making the historical base rate for such an event effectively 0%.
What's driving it
- • The 24-hour and 7-day odds decline of 3 points each suggests traders see no credible threat materializing, despite headlines about US and Israeli regime-change plans (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 23; The New York Times, Jul 13).
- • A headline reporting that Mojtaba Khamenei was killed in February (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24) appears to be false or unsubstantiated, as the market still trades on his being alive and in power, reinforcing the 'No' consensus.
- • The article 'Why Iran won’t change' (The New Arab, Jul 23) likely reinforces the view that the regime is stable in the short term, depressing 'Yes' probability.
- • US reconsideration of regime change (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 23) and Trump's renewed interest (AFR, Jul 20) are speculative and lack concrete action, so they have not moved the odds upward.
The case for YES
- • If an official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal is made before July 31, the market resolves 'Yes' regardless of the cause, per the resolution criteria.
- • The New York Times reports on Israel’s secret operation to cultivate Ahmadinejad (Jul 13) and a regime-change plan (Jul 13), indicating active foreign efforts that could theoretically produce a sudden change.
- • US reconsideration of regime change (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 23) suggests diplomatic or covert pressure might accelerate, though no timeline is given.
The case for NO
- • No credible reports or official announcements indicate Mojtaba Khamenei has been removed, detained, or prevented from acting as leader, and the market odds reflect that absence of evidence.
- • The article 'Why Iran won’t change' (The New Arab, Jul 23) argues the regime is stable, and with only days left until July 31, the window for any internal or external action to succeed is vanishingly small.
- • Even if US or Israeli plans exist (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 23; The New York Times, Jul 13), they would require time to execute, making a resolution by July 31 implausible.
What to watch
- • Any official statement from Iranian state media about Khamenei's health or status before July 31 would sharply move odds toward 'Yes' if it indicates incapacitation or removal.
- • A surprise announcement of a US or Israeli military operation targeting Iranian leadership (e.g., following up on the Feb strikes reported by Crypto Briefing) would spike 'Yes' probability.
- • Lack of any breaking news by July 30 would cement the 'No' outcome, likely pushing odds to near 0%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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