When will MNX mainnet launch?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: July 2026 at about a 55% chance — more likely than not.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The market assigns a high probability (74%) to a MNX mainnet launch in July or August 2026, suggesting a consensus for a mid-2026 timeline. Lower odds for earlier or later dates imply less market confidence in accelerated or delayed development, while the 11% "Other" outcome captures significant uncertainty. The current odds reflect a balanced view of potential technical progress and common delays in blockchain projects.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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