Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
6,188 markets · page 8 of 258
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market heavily favors 'No' because Iran has repeatedly refused to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, and recent diplomatic signals suggest a deal may be signed without that concession, making a full surrender by year-end unlikely.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
The market is pricing near-zero probability because Iran has repeatedly refused to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, and the US demand for full surrender as a deal precondition (Kyiv Post, Jul 11) is a red line Iran has not crossed, making a voluntary handover by July 31 extremely unlikely.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
The market sees Trump's removal before 2027 as extremely unlikely, with the 6% Yes price reflecting only a thin tail risk of catastrophic foreign-policy escalation or a sudden health/legal event, not any active political process.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Despite a slight uptick in Yes odds this week, the market heavily favors the regime surviving, reflecting the PCC's deep-rooted institutional control; the real story is that economic collapse and external pressure have so far failed to produce a clear political rupture, and the recent movement likely stems from news of Raúl Castro's indictment and rising Trump administration impatience, both of which increase uncertainty without guaranteeing a regime fall.
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
9 outcomes
The field is effectively a two-party contest, but the Libertarian Party's removal from the ballot (AJC.com, Jul 11) eliminates a potential spoiler and runoff trigger, making a Democratic win more straightforward and likely explaining the 90% odds.
2 outcomes
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The field is highly concentrated on a handful of safe Democratic seats, but the recent progressive primary upset in Colorado (PBS, Jul 1) and the broader left-wing primary wins (The Hill, Jul 4) signal that internal party dynamics—not just generic ballot trends—are reshaping which candidates are seen as likely winners, with some incumbents losing renomination and thus making their seats less certain for Democrats.
68 outcomes