Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 65% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 65% right now.
Despite 65% odds of a second-term Trump impeachment, Democratic hesitation and the lack of a clear triggering scandal suggest the market may be pricing in partisan wish rather than legislative reality.
📊 Base rate: Of the four U.S. presidents who have faced impeachment proceedings, only one (Andrew Johnson) was impeached during a second term, and none have been convicted by the Senate, making a second-term impeachment historically rare.
What's driving it
- • A July 14 Free Press article notes that some Democrats are unsure about pursuing a third Trump impeachment, tempering the earlier momentum implied by the 65% odds (The Free Press, Jul 14).
- • A July 1 Nation article reports that Americans broadly want Trump impeached, which may be fueling the Yes side despite institutional hurdles (The Nation, Jun 29).
- • The July 2 arrest of an Air Force major calling for Trump's impeachment on Capitol steps highlights grassroots pressure but also the lack of official congressional action (The Hill, Jul 2).
The case for YES
- • Public opinion, as reflected in The Nation's report, shows a majority of Americans favor impeachment, which could pressure House Democrats to act (The Nation, Jun 29).
- • Trump's own reflections on other presidencies, per the New York Times, may signal controversial policies that could provide a concrete impeachment trigger (The New York Times, Jul 3).
- • The symbolic protest by a military officer on the Capitol steps suggests that even apolitical figures are mobilizing for impeachment, potentially galvanizing lawmakers (Washington Times, Jul 1).
The case for NO
- • Democratic hesitation, as reported by The Free Press, indicates that party leaders may not have the appetite for a third impeachment, especially without a clear high crime (The Free Press, Jul 14).
- • Lindsey Graham's history as a former impeachment manager turned Trump ally shows that key Senate Republicans remain loyal, making conviction unlikely even if the House impeaches (Yahoo, Jul 13).
- • No specific impeachable offense has emerged in recent headlines; the market's 65% appears driven by general sentiment rather than a concrete scandal.
What to watch
- • A formal House resolution or committee investigation into Trump's actions (e.g., related to Ukraine or January 6) would sharply increase Yes odds; if none materializes by year-end, odds would fall.
- • Release of any damaging report from a federal watchdog or special counsel (e.g., on Trump's business dealings) could push odds above 70%; a clean report would drop them below 50%.
- • Midterm election results in November 2026 that shift House control toward Democrats would raise Yes odds; a Republican gain would lower them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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