Donald Trump out before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The market sees Trump's removal before 2027 as extremely unlikely, with the 6% Yes price reflecting only a thin tail risk of catastrophic foreign-policy escalation or a sudden health/legal event, not any active political process.
📊 Base rate: Since 1900, only one U.S. president has left office involuntarily before the end of a term (Nixon's resignation), giving a historical base rate of roughly 2% for any president leaving early.
What's driving it
- • Iran ceasefire talks and Trump's reported push for 'all-out war' (Axios, Jul 21) introduce a small but real risk that a major military confrontation could destabilize his presidency.
- • Trump's public appearances at the World Cup and focus on Air Force One upgrades (The Guardian, Jul 21; NBC News, Jul 20) signal normal presidential activity, reinforcing the No case.
- • The new UK Prime Minister's invite to Trump (Time, Jul 20) shows continued diplomatic engagement, reducing odds of a sudden rupture that could force him out.
The case for YES
- • If Iran ceasefire talks collapse and Trump orders a large-scale military strike, a major escalation could trigger impeachment or resignation under crisis pressure.
- • A sudden health event (e.g., stroke, heart attack) or legal indictment that makes governing impossible could force Trump to leave before 2027.
- • A catastrophic scandal or leak (e.g., from the 'maxed out' Air Force One security questions, WaPo Jul 21) could erode Republican support and lead to removal.
The case for NO
- • Trump retains strong control over the Republican Party and has shown no signs of voluntarily stepping down, with no credible primary challenge or internal coup.
- • The 25th Amendment requires both Cabinet and congressional supermajorities, an extremely high bar given GOP loyalty and no public health concerns.
- • Impeachment and conviction would need a Democratic House and a two-thirds Senate majority, neither of which is currently plausible.
What to watch
- • Iran ceasefire deadline or escalation announcement (likely in August 2026) — if talks fail and war begins, Yes odds could spike; if a deal is reached, No odds strengthen.
- • Release of Trump's medical records or a public health incident — any sign of serious illness would push Yes up; a clean bill of health would reinforce No.
- • 2026 midterm election results (November 2026) — if Democrats win the House, impeachment risk rises modestly, pushing Yes up a few points; if Republicans hold, No solidifies.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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