Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 13% right now.
The market heavily favors 'No' because Iran has repeatedly refused to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, and recent diplomatic signals suggest a deal may be signed without that concession, making a full surrender by year-end unlikely.
📊 Base rate: In nuclear nonproliferation negotiations since 2000, states have rarely agreed to fully surrender existing enriched uranium stockpiles, with most deals involving caps or monitored storage instead.
What's driving it
- • A senior Iranian source told Reuters on May 24 that Iran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, directly contradicting the condition for a 'Yes' resolution (Reuters, May 24).
- • Fortune reported on June 15 that the U.S. says Iran will give up its uranium but Iran says it won't, and they are due to sign a deal on Friday, highlighting a fundamental impasse (Fortune, Jun 15).
- • The Kyiv Post reported on July 11 that the U.S. is demanding Iran surrender its uranium stockpile as a condition for any nuclear deal, but no agreement has been reached, keeping the odds low (Kyiv Post, Jul 11).
The case for YES
- • The U.S. has made surrender of the stockpile a stated condition for any deal, and Iran may eventually concede under sustained diplomatic or economic pressure before the December 31 deadline (Kyiv Post, Jul 11).
- • A Time Magazine article on June 19 described a 60-day test period following an earlier agreement, suggesting ongoing negotiations could lead to a breakthrough on the stockpile issue (Time Magazine, Jun 19).
- • The market's resolution only requires a public agreement to surrender any portion of the stockpile, not immediate physical transfer, lowering the bar for a 'Yes' outcome.
The case for NO
- • Iran has explicitly and repeatedly refused to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, as confirmed by a senior Iranian source to Reuters as recently as May 24 (Reuters, May 24).
- • The BBC reported on June 15 that Trump aims to end the Iran war but the nuclear issue remains unresolved, indicating no progress on the stockpile surrender (BBC, Jun 15).
- • Netanyahu's warning on July 8 about Iran's chemical weapons suggests ongoing distrust and lack of a comprehensive deal, making a voluntary surrender of nuclear material unlikely (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8).
What to watch
- • Any official statement from Iran's government or Supreme Leader in the coming months explicitly rejecting or accepting the stockpile surrender demand would move the market sharply toward 'No' or 'Yes', respectively.
- • A signed nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran before December 31 that includes or omits the stockpile surrender clause would directly resolve the market.
- • New IAEA inspection reports or intelligence assessments revealing the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile could shift odds if they show progress or lack thereof toward surrender.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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