Trump out as President by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Trump out as President by July 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Despite a mounting security controversy over Trump's Qatari-gifted Air Force One and aggressive tariff moves, the market sees virtually zero chance of his removal within the next ten days, with the odds anchored by the extreme short timeline and lack of any formal removal proceedings.
📊 Base rate: Since the 25th Amendment's ratification in 1967, no U.S. president has been involuntarily removed from office; the only resignations occurred under threat of impeachment (Nixon) or for health reasons, making a forced exit within a ten-day window extremely rare.
What's driving it
- • The overwhelming No odds (99%) reflect the mere ten-day window until July 31, with no formal impeachment or 25th Amendment proceedings initiated (implied by the lack of any such headlines).
- • Trump's escalating foreign policy stance—pushing for 'all-out war' with Iran (Axios, Jul 21)—and his 50% tariffs on Canadian goods (PBS, Jul 20) suggest an emboldened, not retreating, president.
- • The controversy over the Qatari-gifted Air Force One and security questions (Washington Post, Time, Jul 20) has not triggered any cabinet-level action, keeping the market unmoved.
- • Media networks refusing to air Trump's primetime address (Fox News, Jul 20) indicates political friction but falls far short of removal catalysts.
The case for YES
- • A sudden resignation could occur if Trump faces an imminent personal legal threat, but no indictments or investigations are mentioned in recent headlines.
- • The 25th Amendment's Section 4 could be invoked by the Cabinet if Trump were deemed unfit, but there are zero reports of any such discussions, making this purely hypothetical.
- • An assassination attempt or incapacitating health event remains a low-probability tail risk, but no credible threats or health scares are reported in the provided headlines.
The case for NO
- • No formal impeachment articles, 25th Amendment invocation, or resignations have been announced, and the ten-day window makes initiating such processes before July 31 virtually impossible.
- • Trump's aggressive policy moves (tariffs, Iran conflict push, primetime address) signal an active president in full control, not a leader about to step down.
- • The 1% Yes price is already a reflection of remote catastrophic risk (e.g., death or sudden resignation under pressure), not a realistic chance.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of formal impeachment proceedings or a 25th Amendment Section 4 letter from the Cabinet would likely spike Yes odds, but none are foreseen in the provided headlines.
- • A major security crisis regarding the Qatari-gifted Air Force One (e.g., grounding due to safety failures) could erode confidence, but the current coverage is about political optics, not operational failure.
- • A new ceasefire breakthrough in Iran (Axios, Jul 21) could ease tensions and reduce any pretext for removal related to war powers, reinforcing No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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