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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3817 US elections 2686 Foreign politics 403 Political Leader Tenure 340 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 72 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

10,845 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 4 of 417

Manifold· Play

Open

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ20K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Futuur

Open

‹ Prev123456…417Next ›

Iran to agree to end uranium enrichment by ...?

The field is anchored on a year-end 2026 deadline, but the recent standoff over inspections (NPR, Jun 24) has left the earlier dates at low odds, and the market implies that a deal by late 2026 is the most likely but far from certain.

December 3139¢

3 outcomes

$576 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom20¢

128 outcomes

$1.2B Vol▼ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Gianni / Infantino

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$137K Vol▲ 0pts1d

InsightX

Open

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Despite persistent military tensions and Taiwan's active deterrence, the market sees a full-scale invasion by end of 2026 as extremely unlikely, driven by strategic, economic, and diplomatic factors that make such an action prohibitively costly.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$39M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

The field is moderately concentrated with the top three candidates at 54%, but the remaining 46% is distributed among 24 others, leaving room for a late surge. The single biggest recent shift is the consolidation of Gavin Newsom's lead, as highlighted by the Action Network headline showing AOC and Ossoff trailing him (Action Network, Jul 21).

Jon Ossoff21¢

27 outcomes

£7.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

The market sees AI as nearly certain to rival abortion as a top-tier political issue by 2028, driven by accelerating regulatory battles and campaign messaging rather than any single recent headline.

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ2.5M Vol▲ 0pts1y

Futuur

Open

How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026?

Despite unanimous convictions of five coup-plotters in December 2025, the market is heavily skewed toward zero rank losses (64%), suggesting that the legal and political path to actually stripping military ranks remains blocked, likely by Lula's veto and military resistance.

060¢

4 outcomes

$470 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Yes86¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

$1.3M Vol▲ 16pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (7/19-7/25)

120-13999¢

10 outcomes

$285K Vol▲ 0pts5h

InsightX

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Despite Trump's renewed public push for Greenland at the NATO summit in early July, the market sees virtually no chance of acquisition before 2027 because Denmark has firmly rejected any transfer and the US lacks a legal or political path to force a sale within the remaining five months.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$35.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Which party will control the Senate after the midterm elections?

The field is a two-way contest between Republicans and Democrats, with Republicans holding a 55% edge, but the gap has narrowed from earlier in the year as Democrats have gained ground in generic ballot polling and special election results, with the biggest recent shift being a 5-point move toward Democrats since late June, driven by improved polling in key swing states (The News Journal, Jun 30).

Republican Party54¢

2 outcomes

£7.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

The Republican path to a Senate majority hinges on holding Louisiana and flipping Michigan, but internal GOP doubts about nominee quality in Louisiana and a strong Democratic recruit in Maine are tightening the race.

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ90.5K Vol▼ 0pts4mo

Futuur

Open

Masoud Pezeshkian out as President of Iran by ...?

The field is extremely open with only 33% probability assigned to any specific date, and the single biggest recent shift is the collapse of the March 31 option from a likely front-runner to 6%, driven by escalating US-Iran military clashes that make a near-term ouster seem less likely than a longer-term one.

December 3124¢

3 outcomes

$460 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$20.9M Vol▲ 0pts4d

InsightX

Open

Iran leader end of 2026?

The race is virtually a one-candidate contest, with Mojtaba Khamenei at 78% and no other candidate above 5%, reflecting the assumption that Iran's clerical establishment will engineer a hereditary succession after the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid a war that bolsters hardliners.

Mojtaba Khamenei79¢

2 outcomes

$35M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Larry Rhoden98¢

2 outcomes

$1.2M Vol▼ 0pts3mo

Smarkets

Open

Clacton By-Election - Count Binface Vote Share

The field is highly concentrated on the 10-20% bracket at 38%, but the 0-10% bracket at 29% and the 20-30% bracket at 17% show significant uncertainty, with the biggest recent shift being the surge of interest in Count Binface as a serious protest candidate following Nigel Farage's confirmed by-election and Binface's media blitz (Al Jazeera, Jul 9; BBC, Jul 9; CNN, Jul 9).

10.00% - 19.99%48¢

5 outcomes

£5.9K Vol▲ 0pts18d

Manifold· Play

Open

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

The field is unusually fragmented for 2.5 years out, with no candidate above 18% and the top three summing just 49%, reflecting a post-incumbent vacuum; the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner surge, as Trump's unsubstantiated election-fraud claims (Reuters, Jul 17) have not boosted any specific Republican candidate's odds but keep the party's base agitated and the field unsettled.

JD Vance18¢

45 outcomes

Ɱ1.3M Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026

The field is moderately concentrated, with three candidates above 35% and a combined front-runner share of 148% (multiple seats), but the biggest recent shift is the June 30 analysis that Lula’s narrow alliance may hurt Senate allies, potentially weakening left-wing candidates like Paulo Pimenta and Manuela D'Ávila.

Marcel van Hattem61¢

5 outcomes

$418 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$1.1M Vol▼ 3pts4d

InsightX

Open

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

The field is surprisingly open despite Netanyahu's nominal lead, as former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot is surging in the polls and the top three candidates command less than half the vote, making a coalition-led alternative the most plausible path to unseating the incumbent.

Benjamin Netanyahu38¢

2 outcomes

$29.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? — Before Jan 4, 2027

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$9.6M Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election Conservative Leader - Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch's 74% odds reflect a Conservative Party that has consolidated around her as a Thatcherite figurehead, but the real story is that the next general election's timing—controlled by new PM Andy Burnham—poses the biggest threat to her leadership tenure, as a snap election could catch the Tories off guard.

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

£5.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y