Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
Across venues
· updated 34mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Despite the near-zero odds, the real story is that multiple independent indicators—tanker crossings, seizure incidents, and expert timelines—all point to a prolonged disruption that makes a return to the IMF's 60-call threshold within days virtually impossible.
📊 Base rate: Past major chokepoint disruptions (e.g., 2019 Hormuz tanker attacks) took months to resolve, but no historical instance of a sustained blockade or military standoff in the Strait has resolved within a single week.
What's driving it
- • Tanker crossings hit their lowest level since May on July 24, directly contradicting a near-term recovery (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24).
- • Iran seized a Greek tanker on July 22, signaling ongoing state-sponsored interference that raises the risk of further disruptions (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22).
- • Multiple prediction markets and expert analyses forecast that normal traffic will not return for 12 months or more (CNBC, Jul 24; MSN, Jul 21).
The case for YES
- • A rapid diplomatic de-escalation could allow a surge of previously delayed ships to cross in a few days, pushing the 7-day moving average above 60 before July 31.
- • IMF Portwatch data lags by several days; a hidden fleet buildup outside the Strait could register suddenly in the 7-day average if released promptly.
- • The market's extreme 1% odds create a low bar for any positive geopolitical surprise, such as a tacit U.S.-Iran agreement to restore free passage immediately.
The case for NO
- • The July 24 tanker crossing data shows an ongoing decline, and the IMF's 7-day moving average requires sustained above-60 traffic for days, which is impossible if current low levels persist through the end of July (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24).
- • The July 22 tanker seizure demonstrates that Iran is actively using the Strait as a coercive tool, and no public talks or ceasefires have been announced that would reverse this pattern within just 5 days (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22).
- • Expert consensus explicitly points to a 12-month or longer disruption, making a return by July 31 an outlier scenario with no supporting evidence in recent headlines (CNBC, Jul 24; MSN, Jul 21).
What to watch
- • Iran-IASB or IMF Portwatch data releases between July 27-30 showing a sharp increase in transit calls would push odds upward, likely confirming a 'Yes' resolution if sustained.
- • A U.S. naval announcement of a new convoy or escort operation to safely guide commercial ships through the Strait before July 31, which would suggest official confidence in restoring traffic.
- • Any new seizure or military incident in the Strait before market close (July 31) would drive odds further toward zero, as it would confirm ongoing active disruption.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Related markets
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
Yes ≈ 67% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes