Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 86% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 86% right now.
The odds have surged 42 points in a week, driven by Iran's secret ceasefire proposal and a US House vote to constrain war, suggesting markets now see a temporary halt as more likely than continued escalation.
What's driving it
- • Iran secretly submitted a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire on July 21, signaling willingness to de-escalate (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 21).
- • The US House voted on July 23 to limit the president's authority to wage war with Iran, reducing the risk of US-backed Israeli escalation (Al Jazeera, Jul 23).
- • The odds have risen 42 percentage points in seven days, reflecting rapid reassessment of ceasefire durability.
The case for YES
- • Iran's own ceasefire proposal indicates a desire to pause hostilities, making a continuation through July 31 plausible.
- • The US House vote to limit war powers reduces the chance of a major US-Israeli coordinated strike that could break the ceasefire.
- • The current ceasefire is already in effect, and both sides have refrained from qualifying military actions since the proposal was made.
The case for NO
- • The ceasefire remains informal and fragile; either side could launch a qualifying air or missile strike at any moment.
- • The US insistence that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz (Jul 22) highlights ongoing tensions and potential flashpoints.
- • Live updates from July 25 (The Jerusalem Post) may indicate continued skirmishes or violations that could escalate.
What to watch
- • July 26-31: Any reported air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike between Israel and Iran would push odds sharply toward No.
- • July 26-31: Continued absence of such strikes and public statements from both sides reaffirming the ceasefire would push odds toward Yes.
- • Potential formal acceptance of Iran's 10-day ceasefire proposal by Israel or the US before July 31 would strongly push odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
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