Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Will the SAVE Act become law? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Despite House Republicans attaching the SAVE Act to a must-pass funding plan, the bill remains a longshot (7% Yes) because it still faces a Senate filibuster requiring 60 votes and a president who has shown willingness to let bills lapse without his signature.
What's driving it
- • House GOP threaded the SAVE America Act into the legislative agenda to try to break a Senate logjam (Washington Examiner, Jul 24).
- • Republicans revived the push through a funding plan and voter ID measures, signaling they are using a must-pass vehicle (Delawareonline, Jul 23).
- • The market odds of 7% reflect traders' skepticism that the bill can overcome the 60-vote Senate threshold or get President Trump's signature, especially after a recent bipartisan housing bill became law automatically when Trump refused to sign it (CBS News, Jul 11).
The case for YES
- • By attaching the SAVE Act to a funding bill that could trigger a government shutdown, Republicans create leverage that could force Senate Democrats to accept the measure (Washington Examiner, Jul 24).
- • President Trump has publicly pushed for voting changes, and his backing could provide pressure for Republicans to unify and for some Democrats to compromise (NBC News, Jul 16).
- • If the funding bill is the only way to avoid a shutdown, Senate leadership might negotiate a deal that includes some version of the SAVE Act.
The case for NO
- • The SAVE Act faces a Senate filibuster that requires 60 votes to advance, and Republicans hold only 53 seats with no reported Democratic defections, making cloture highly unlikely.
- • Democrats broadly oppose the bill's voter ID and citizenship verification provisions, calling it a voter suppression measure (Delawareonline, Jul 23), so bipartisan support is almost nonexistent.
- • Even if the bill passes Congress, President Trump could refuse to sign it—as he did with a bipartisan housing bill that automatically became law without his signature (CBS News, Jul 11)—creating an additional path to failure if he simply lets it lapse until after the deadline.
What to watch
- • An upcoming Senate cloture vote on the funding bill that includes the SAVE Act (likely in late July or August) — a failure to reach 60 would cement the No outcome; a surprise success would boost Yes significantly.
- • The September 30 government funding deadline — if Republicans threaten a shutdown to force the SAVE Act through, odds may rise temporarily, but a shutdown deal that drops the bill would push Yes lower.
- • A statement or veto threat from President Trump on the SAVE Act — an endorsement would increase Yes, while a veto threat or refusal to engage would confirm the current low odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.
5 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination field is exceptionally fragmented, with no candidate above 5% and the top three sum to just 1% — a sign that the race is truly wide open and still in its earliest jockeying phase, despite a recent poll placing Senator JD Vance near the top of a generic primary ballot (USA Today, Jul 23).
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.
8 outcomes