Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

The market is a toss-up because while AI-generated video quality is rapidly improving, the definition of 'better than real' remains subjective and hinges on uncanny valley traversal, which recent headlines show no clear progress on.

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ62K Vol 0pts5mo

Tech prediction markets

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

A major AI conference will require bomb scanners or other security to prevent a terrorist attack by 2026

Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?

Will "The LLM shoggoth meme is weirder than you think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Will Jose Luis Ricon own an Apple Vision Pro by 2026?

Will major tech company announce functional brain-computer interface able to read complex human thoughts by end of 2030?

Anthropic deploys ads in Claude web or mobile app by end of 2026

Anthropic 2026 Revenue > $60B?

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

Will Apple release an accessory that converts the iPhone into a VR/AR headset (VisionPro) by end of 2026? [~3 years]

Whose full self driving technology will I be able to order a robotaxi from first in Corvallis, Oregon?

Will a human walk on Mars before 2036?

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Will a human walk on Mars before 2030?

Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?

Will "Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will Simeon Campos end up working for https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/ai-2026-mistral-will-rise-as-compute by 2038?

Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2026?

Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher?

Will "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will a human walk on Mars before 2037?