The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Anthropic at about a 42% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
To determine the winner, we will rate the best AI system from each company based on their performance in four areas: Programming IQ test Math General knowledge test Conditions: These AI models can be multimodal but won't be rated on tasks involving images, sounds, or other non-textual data (e.g. the models won't be evaluated based on their ability to intelligently reason from/generate images, sounds, or other non-textual data). It can be a single interface system with multiple underlying models fine-tuned on different tasks. The said AI system can reason before providing an answer. The language of the tests is mainly English. The answers can't be obtained through 3rd-party apps external to the company (such as MiniAGI and the like) For the "Other" option, if other AI models from another company/companies/people/group of people seems better than the frontier models of the 5 companies listed, said model(s) will be tested. The test begins on December 1, 2026. I hope I won't be gone by then. no worries, I'm currently below 30, I am living in a country with a good life expectancy, I have access to healthcare. Peer reviewed, large/long scale research shows that my demographic has good longevity. I am also strongly incentivized to stay around especially when an AI reaches super intelligence, and the researchers (hopefully) don't mess it up. Let's not be pedantic about semantics when it comed to company, research group, non profit etc, important thing is the AI system and the name of the group that is making it.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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