Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Despite a recent uptick to 171 confirmed cases across nine states, the market heavily discounts the possibility of reaching 10,000 cases in 2026, a threshold far above any annual count since the U.S. declared measles eliminated in 2000.
📊 Base rate: In the post-elimination era (since 2000), the highest annual U.S. measles case count was 1,282 in 2019, making 10,000 a tenfold outlier.
What's driving it
- • The 1-point uptick in Yes odds over the past 24 hours likely reflects the July 19 report of 171 cases in 9 states, the highest cumulative count so far in 2026 (MSN, Jul 19).
- • Deep skepticism persists because 171 cases is still only 1.7% of the 10,000 threshold, and most outbreaks have been small and localized.
- • May 9 reporting of less than 50% kindergarten vaccination in one Minnesota city (Star Tribune) highlights vulnerability but also containment, as the outbreak has not yet exploded statewide.
The case for YES
- • If outbreaks in under-vaccinated communities (e.g., the Minnesota city with <50% coverage, or the Texas ICE facility from Feb 5) expand unchecked, cases could multiply exponentially, especially in winter when measles spreads more easily.
- • The 15 deaths in Bangladesh (Apr 2) and 28 deaths in Mexico (Feb 11) show the virus is active globally, and imported cases could seed larger U.S. clusters.
- • A single large metropolitan outbreak (e.g., in London-style school clusters, BBC Feb 15) could quickly push numbers into the thousands if vaccination rates are low enough.
The case for NO
- • The current confirmed count of 171 cases as of July 19 is less than 2% of the target, and the U.S. has not exceeded 1,300 cases in any year since 2000, making 10,000 a historically unprecedented leap.
- • Public health responses (e.g., calls to shut down the Texas ICE facility, The Guardian Feb 5) typically contain outbreaks quickly, preventing exponential growth.
- • The majority of U.S. children are vaccinated (national MMR coverage >90%), limiting the pool of susceptible individuals and the potential for sustained transmission.
What to watch
- • CDC's next weekly measles update (likely late August) – if the cumulative case count jumps above 300, Yes odds could rise; if it stays flat, No odds strengthen.
- • Start of the 2026-2027 school year in September – reports of school outbreaks in multiple states could increase Yes probability, especially if linked to low-vaccination communities.
- • A public health emergency declaration from a state or the CDC – would likely cause a significant spike in Yes odds as it would signal uncontrolled spread.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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