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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 189 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2448 Tech Company Valuations 912 Big tech & chips 628 Space 476 Science 284 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,627 markets · page 189 of 193

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Yes52¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ934 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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‹ Prev1…187188189190191…193Next ›

Open

Will Apple release a smartphone that can securely attach to the skin while biking by the end of 2027?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ446 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Meek Mill raise $10 million or more for an AI company by the end of 2026?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ53 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ960 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Generative AI video used as false evidence in criminal trial by Dec 31, 2026?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ277 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Tesla release a petrol/gasoline car before the end of 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ553 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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Open

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ52 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ14.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will "AI safety undervalues founders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ270 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Tianwen-3 successfully land on Mars?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ75 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ261 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

The market is heavily betting against Bryan Caplan winning his bet, implying that AI will pass his exams by 2029, despite Caplan's historic betting success highlighted in a 2023 Guardian article.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ70.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Can AI grow corn?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ322 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will ai.com change hands by EOY?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ214 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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What Month in 2026 Will OpenAI IPO in?

Does not ipo in 202686¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ6.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Elon Musk tries to make a space station in next 4 years?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ852 Vol▲ 0pts1y