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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 191 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2505 Tech Company Valuations 938 Big tech & chips 638 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,696 markets · page 191 of 196

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ118 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Open

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Despite widespread media speculation about AI mega-cap IPOs in summer 2026, none of the three companies have filed for an IPO or confirmed a $200B+ valuation, and with the August 15 deadline just weeks away, the market heavily favors a No resolution.

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts22d

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Open

Will OpenAI change its name to ClosedAi?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ5.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will NASA/ESA find microbial life on Mars before 2050?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ249 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Chip chief Johny Srouji leaves Apple for another company by 2027?

Johny Srouji's promotion to Chief Hardware Officer in April 2026 and his December 2025 assurance that he is not leaving 'anytime soon' have sharply reduced the probability of his departure by 2027, making the 19% Yes odds a reflection of a low but non-zero risk.

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?

2030 - 204051¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ4.6K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI estimate 50% chance Full Automation of Labor after 2080?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ71 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

How does antimatter gravitationally interact with other antimatter.

Attracts85¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ34.4K Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts16y

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Open

Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ252 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ375 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

The market is overwhelmingly confident that AI will clear Gary Marcus's benchmark #4 by 2029, but the extreme 91% odds reflect a belief in exponentially improving code generation (e.g., Devin, Claude Sonnet 4) rather than any concrete evidence that 10k-line bug-free code from a spec is near.

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ26.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will there be a space elevator by 2050?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ967 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ22 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ450 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open source Sora 2-level model before 2027?

Yes84¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ125 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Yes52¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ934 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Apple release a smartphone that can securely attach to the skin while biking by the end of 2027?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ446 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Meek Mill raise $10 million or more for an AI company by the end of 2026?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ53 Vol▲ 0pts1y