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Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

The market heavily favors 'No' (91%), reflecting that a niche explainer on California's AI law is unlikely to rank among LessWrong's 50 most-voted posts of 2025, but the near-complete lack of relevant recent headlines means the odds are driven by generic priors rather than new information.

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ504 Vol 0pts

Tech prediction markets

Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2800?

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?

Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029?

Will Obama be formally associated with Anthropic before 2030?

Will a vessel be launched to test MOND vs Lambda-CDM model before 2035?

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?

Will a baby be born on the Moon before a dog walks on Mars?

Will someone train an LLM using a dataset that has had all references to consciousness removed?

AI: Valuation above $1T by 2035

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Will AI extend English before 2032?

Will OpenAI do large layoffs this year?

Will Microsoft eliminate every line of C and C++ by 2030?

Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?