Economics prediction markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
AllMarkets & equities 723Growth & recession 286Inflation 177Monetary policy 106Largest Companies 85Jobs & labor 61Gasoline Prices 42Bitcoin Price Levels 15Currency Exchange Rates 14Headline 8Gold Price Levels 7Fiscal & trade 6
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US recession by end of 2026?
The market dismisses a 2026 US recession as highly unlikely (10% Yes), betting that a strong labor market and the deflationary promise of AI will overpower the historical pattern where credit booms ended in downturns.
Yes11¢
No89¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$4.7K Vol 0pts6mo