US’ GDP growth rate for Q2- 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2.6% or more at about a 37% chance.
The field is moderately concentrated with the top three candidates capturing 91% of the probability, but the recent shift is a clear upward revision for the 2.6%+ bucket, driven by the IMF upgrading growth forecasts for the UK and Korea (The Guardian, Jul 8; Businesskorea, Jul 9), which bolsters the case for strong US GDP.
📊 Base rate: US quarterly GDP growth has averaged about 2.5% annually over the past decade, so the current 39% probability for 2.6% or more is slightly above the historical frequency of such outcomes.
What's driving it
- • The IMF upgraded UK growth forecasts as fears over the Iran war diminish (The Guardian, Jul 8), signaling reduced global risk that supports higher US GDP.
- • The IMF raised Korea's growth forecast to 2.5% (Businesskorea, Jul 9), indicating stronger Asian demand that can boost US exports and overall growth.
- • ADB cuts to Bangladesh's growth forecast (The Daily Star, Jul 9; New Age BD, Jul 9) and Romania's 1.2% year-on-year Q1 drop (Romania Insider, Jul 9) are negative signals for global demand, weighing on the lower-end GDP scenarios.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 2.6%+ candidate leads at 39% because the IMF's upgrades for major economies (UK, Korea) suggest a resilient global backdrop that typically lifts US growth above trend.
- • The 2.1%-2.5% candidate at 30% benefits from being the historical average range, making it a safe bet if global headwinds from Bangladesh and Romania are offset by US domestic strength.
- • The top two candidates together at 69% reflect a market consensus that the US economy will avoid a sharp slowdown, supported by the IMF's positive revisions.
Why it's still open
- • The 1.5%-2.0% candidate at 22% could overtake the front-runners if the ADB's Bangladesh cuts and Romania's contraction signal a broader global slowdown that drags on US GDP.
- • The 1.4% or less candidate at 11% could gain if health spending projections topping 20% of GDP by 2034 (HealthLeaders Media, Jul 9) indicate a structural drag on growth from rising costs.
- • The field is open because the IMF upgrades are concentrated in only two countries, and negative data from Bangladesh and Romania show that global risks remain, leaving room for a downside surprise.
What to watch
- • US Q2 GDP advance estimate release (likely late July 2026): if the actual figure exceeds 2.5%, the 2.6%+ probability will surge; if below 1.5%, the lower buckets will jump.
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision (late July 2026): a rate cut would boost the higher-growth scenarios, while a hold or hike would favor the lower buckets.
- • Next round of US monthly jobs and retail sales data (mid-July 2026): strong data would reinforce the 2.6%+ lead, weak data would shift probability to the 1.5%-2.0% range.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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