Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
243 markets · page 1 of 11
5 outcomes
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The field is effectively a two-way coin flip between cuts and hikes, with the recent shift toward hikes driven by a rare internal Fed divide and hawkish minutes, despite President Trump's public pressure for cuts.
2 outcomes
The market is pricing near-zero probability of a rate above 4% on July 29, despite some upside inflation risk, because the Fed's last signal in June suggested only potential future hikes, not an imminent move, and the current rate upper bound is already below 4%.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The sharp 7-day rise in rate-hike odds reflects a market pricing in a later-in-2026 hike, not necessarily July, driven by oil-price inflation fears and Chair Warsh's hawkish stance, even as immediate July-hike expectations collapsed after his testimony.
Yes ≈ 72% chance
7 outcomes
Yes ≈ 22% chance
The market heavily favors rates staying at or below 3.75% after the July 29 meeting, but the real story is that the Fed's new chair Kevin Warsh has signaled potential hikes amid persistent inflation, creating a tail risk that the odds currently underprice.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 51% chance
The market has swung from a coin-flip to a clear 69% probability of a rate hike, driven by a sudden wave of hawkish Fed commentary and expert warnings that the central bank may need to reverse its earlier cuts to combat resurgent inflation.
Yes ≈ 67% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 97% chance
6 outcomes