Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
🗂 Part of event: Will the S&P finish positive this year? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 76% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 76% right now.
The market is pricing a 76% chance of the S&P 500 closing above 6845.5, reflecting a strong global economic tailwind from positive corporate earnings and growth signals in mid-July, but the high level suggests much optimism is already baked in.
📊 Base rate: Since 1980, the S&P 500 has ended the year above its mid-year level in about 65% of years, though that is not directly comparable to the specific target of 6845.5.
What's driving it
- • Positive global economic data from China and the UK, with an Australian expert calling Chinese H1 development 'very positive' (Xinhua, Jul 17) and England's first-half growth keeping the pound buoyant (XTB.com, Jul 16), have boosted investor confidence in global demand.
- • Strong corporate earnings from multiple sectors globally, including BHEL's 40% revenue growth and record order book (TradingView, Jul 16), CFG's record Q2 revenue (TradingView, Jul 16), and OCDO's strong retail growth (TradingView, Jul 16), signal robust economic momentum that could lift the S&P 500.
- • A positive profit warning from Digital Workforce, raising its 2026 revenue growth outlook (STT Info, Jul 16), adds to the narrative of upward earnings revisions, supporting the bull case for equities.
The case for YES
- • Sustained global economic expansion, as indicated by positive Chinese and UK growth, will continue to drive US corporate earnings and support the S&P 500's upward trajectory.
- • Record order books and strong revenue growth at companies like BHEL and CFG suggest that the positive momentum in the first half of 2026 is likely to persist into the second half.
- • The accumulation of positive profit warnings and upward outlooks (Digital Workforce) points to a broad-based earnings recovery that could push the index above 6845.5 by year-end.
The case for NO
- • The S&P 500 is already at elevated levels, and the high odds (76%) imply that much of the positive news is already priced in, leaving limited room for further upside without a fresh catalyst.
- • Geopolitical risks or a surprise inflation print could trigger a correction, erasing recent gains and preventing the index from reaching the target level.
- • Late-year seasonal headwinds, such as profit-taking or a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve, could weigh on markets and keep the S&P 500 below 6845.5.
What to watch
- • July 30-31 FOMC meeting: A dovish stance would increase odds of Yes, while a hawkish surprise would decrease odds.
- • August US CPI data release (mid-August): Lower inflation would support the Yes case, while higher inflation would hurt it.
- • Upcoming US corporate earnings reports for Q2 (July-August): Positive surprises would boost odds, negative surprises would reduce them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6845.50, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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