Brazil’s GDP growth rate for Q2-2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Between 0.3% and 0.7% at about a 51% chance — a coin toss.
The field is highly concentrated on moderate growth (0.3%-1.2%) with 84% probability, but the surprise miss in May industrial output (CryptoRank, Jul 3) has shifted weight from the 0.8%-1.2% bracket toward the 0.3%-0.7% bracket, making the lower-moderate scenario the new front-runner.
What's driving it
- • Brazil's industrial output grew only 0.2% in May, missing forecasts and signaling weaker-than-expected manufacturing momentum (CryptoRank, Jul 3).
- • Government spending is projected to ease to 19% of GDP this year, which may constrain fiscal stimulus and dampen growth expectations (Reuters, Jun 29).
- • Stronger GDP outlook from prior months is now seen as a challenge for the central bank, potentially tightening monetary policy and cooling expansion (Valor International, Jun 29).
- • Rising consumer confidence (Valor International, Jun 26) provides a partial offset, supporting domestic demand but not enough to overcome industrial weakness.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 0.3%-0.7% bracket leads because the May industrial output miss directly reduces the likelihood of a stronger rebound, making moderate growth the most plausible outcome.
- • The 0.8%-1.2% bracket retains 33% support due to earlier strong GDP outlook and consumer confidence gains, which could still lift Q2 if June data surprises upward.
- • The top two brackets together capture 84% of probability, reflecting a consensus that growth will be positive but subdued, with no extreme outcomes likely.
Why it's still open
- • The 0.2% or less scenario could overtake if June industrial or services data also disappoint, as the May miss may signal a broader slowdown (CryptoRank, Jul 3).
- • The 1.3% or more scenario remains a long shot (11%) but could gain if consumer confidence translates into strong June retail sales and services activity (Valor International, Jun 26).
- • The field is open to a shift toward the lower tail if upcoming inflation or interest rate decisions (e.g., central bank tightening) further suppress growth (Valor International, Jun 29).
What to watch
- • Brazil's June industrial production and retail sales data (expected mid-July) will either confirm the May slowdown or show a rebound, moving odds toward 0.2% or less or 0.8%-1.2% respectively.
- • The central bank's next monetary policy decision (likely late July) could tighten rates if growth remains strong, dampening Q2 GDP expectations and favoring lower brackets.
- • Any new fiscal announcements from the government on spending or tax changes (e.g., budget revisions) would directly impact growth forecasts, with spending cuts favoring lower growth and stimulus favoring higher.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by Futuur per each question's rules. Futuur runs both play- and real-money sides — we show the real-money (crypto) price.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Futuur ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
Despite safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict, gold is trading below $4,000 and facing a bearish 'death cross' technical pattern, pushing the market strongly toward a dump to $3,700 (71% odds) rather than a pump to $4,900.
2 outcomes
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
4 outcomes
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
7 outcomes
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome—zero rate cuts in 2026—with 85% probability, and the biggest recent shift is the market pricing in hikes rather than cuts, as economists stick to their cut call while markets price in hikes (Bloomberg.com, Jul 24) and the Fed faces a rate hike debate (The South Shore Press, Jul 25).
2 outcomes