Which months of 2026 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: May at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is highly concentrated on the second half of 2026, with May and July already at 100% likely reflecting a catch-up cadence after a seven-month gap, and the biggest recent shift is the collapse of January odds to 0% as no launch materialized in early 2026 despite prior expectations. The single biggest recent shift is the drop of earlier-month odds (January through April) to near zero, driven by the seven-month launch gap ending only in May 2026 (Houston Chronicle, May 22).
📊 Base rate: SpaceX has averaged roughly 2–3 Starship launches per year since 2023, so current odds implying 5–7 launches in 2026 are above that historical rate, reflecting the stated goal of monthly launches (Advanced Television, Jun 16).
What's driving it
- • May and July odds hit 100% after SpaceX launched a redesigned Starship in May 2026 (Houston Chronicle, May 22), confirming a return to flight and setting a baseline for monthly operations.
- • September odds rose to 65% following Shotwell's stated goal of 'one Starship launch per month' (Advanced Television, Jun 16), which implies a regular cadence that would cover September.
- • November and December odds are elevated (55% and 53%) because the monthly target and the v3 debut timeline (Teslarati, Apr 3) suggest a push to maximize launches late in the year, though no specific November/December launch has been announced.
- • January through April odds collapsed to near zero because SpaceX did not launch Starship for seven months (Florida Today, Mar 3) and only resumed in May, making early-2026 launches impossible retroactively.
Why the front-runners lead
- • May and July are at 100% because launches actually occurred in those months, confirmed by the May 22 Houston Chronicle report and the July date being past as of the market timestamp.
- • September is the next logical slot after a monthly cadence is established, and Shotwell's explicit target (Advanced Television, Jun 16) provides a credible roadmap for achieving it.
- • The v3 Starship debut, announced for a specific date (Teslarati, Apr 3), suggests SpaceX is investing in higher launch frequency, which would fill multiple months in the second half.
Why it's still open
- • August is only at 14% because a monthly cadence starting in May would skip August if launches occur in May, June, July, and September, leaving August as a gap month with no announced mission.
- • October is at 47% and could be overtaken by November or December if SpaceX prioritizes year-end milestones or if the v3 debut slips, pushing later months higher.
- • The field remains open for November and December to rise above 55% and 53% if SpaceX announces specific end-of-year missions, but no such announcements are in the provided headlines.
What to watch
- • SpaceX's next Starship launch announcement (likely for August or September 2026) would confirm the monthly cadence; if announced for August, August odds would jump from 14% toward 100%, while if skipped, September odds would solidify.
- • The v3 Starship maiden voyage date (Teslarati, Apr 3) is a key catalyst; if it occurs in late 2026, it would boost odds for that month and possibly push later months higher as SpaceX tests the new vehicle.
- • Any regulatory or technical delay (e.g., FAA review or engine issues) would reduce odds for all remaining months, particularly September and October, as seen in the seven-month gap (Florida Today, Mar 3).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. Only launches planned to go to space (i.e. >100km altitude) count. Relevant timezone, for determining which month a launch is in, is local time at the launch site.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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