Starship milestone dates megamarket
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025 at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely concentrated at the top, with all 100% candidates being near-term milestones that are effectively already achieved or certain, while the long-shot 'reuse a starship' bets show high but not absolute confidence, indicating the market is pricing in technical progress but not treating any outcome as guaranteed beyond the immediate future.
📊 Base rate: Historical base rate for SpaceX achieving new Starship milestones on schedule is low—prior to 2025, most major Starship goals (e.g., orbital flight, booster catch) were delayed by 1-3 years from initial target dates, suggesting current 94-95% odds for a 2028 reuse are above the historical success rate for such ambitious timelines.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds likely reflect cumulative progress from earlier successful booster catches and static fires, not a specific headline event.
- • The 100% odds on near-term milestones (e.g., 'Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06') suggest the market views these as already achieved or inevitable, possibly due to SpaceX's demonstrated booster recovery capability in prior flights.
- • The drop from 100% to 94-95% for 'Reuse a starship by end of 2028/06' vs. '2028/03' indicates slight uncertainty about timing, likely driven by the technical complexity of reusing the upper stage, which has not yet been attempted.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Front-runners like 'Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06' at 100% are priced as certain because SpaceX has already caught boosters multiple times, making reuse a matter of when, not if.
- • High-confidence bets on 'Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/06' at 100% reflect concrete infrastructure progress—Pad B at Boca Chica is under construction and likely to be operational within that timeframe.
- • The 95% odds on 'Reuse a starship by end of 2028/06' are supported by SpaceX's iterative development model, which has historically turned early failures into rapid successes (e.g., Starship SN15 landing).
Why it's still open
- • The field remains open for 'Reuse a starship' because no Starship has ever been recovered intact; the definition allows missing tiles or flap damage, but the first reuse attempt could still fail catastrophically, pushing the timeline past 2028.
- • Candidates like 'Refuel a booster' (not in top 3 but above 5%) could overtake if SpaceX prioritizes orbital refueling demonstrations, which are critical for Artemis missions and may accelerate due to NASA deadlines.
- • A single major failure (e.g., a booster explosion during catch) could collapse confidence in near-term milestones, opening the door for longer-shot bets on later dates or alternative approaches.
What to watch
- • SpaceX's next Starship integrated flight test (likely late 2025 or early 2026) could reshape odds: a successful booster catch and reuse would lock in 100% bets, while a failure would drop them sharply.
- • NASA's Artemis III timeline updates (expected in 2026) could boost 'Refuel a booster' odds if the agency demands orbital refueling by 2027, forcing SpaceX to prioritize that milestone.
- • The opening of Pad B at Boca Chica (targeted for 2026) would directly confirm 'Launch from a different tower' bets, likely keeping them at 100% and shifting focus to other milestones.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Reach orbit means full circumnavigation around Earth. Recover starship means mainly intact and no large deformation. Things that might possibly be repairable like missing tiles and/or hole in flap and/or flap torn off is acceptable. Refuel a booster must be at least 50% of amount of propellants intended to be transferred. Also must be more than 1000 Kg of mass in case they do a very small scale test. Catch booster on different tower means different from Pad A at Boca Chica used for the first catch. Pad B at Boca Chica is perhaps most advanced and most likely but it could be a different location. Note it does not have to be a different tower from which it launched. Mass simulators to suborbital do not count as satellites. Satellites must be deployed to orbit and be functional items but functional as a test item is OK. Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To satisfy the recover starship requirement: The ship must be recovered to land (e.g., landing on a barge but falling over or being scuttled before reaching land does not count). The ship must be in a state where repair to fly again is possible (e.g., a seawater dunk that rules out any chance of repair would fail this requirement).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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