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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 24 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2496 Tech Company Valuations 934 Big tech & chips 637 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,696 markets · page 24 of 196

Polymarket

Open

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$301K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…2223242526…196Next ›

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 16

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$6.6K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑10k

Despite a recent uptick to 171 confirmed cases across nine states, the market heavily discounts the possibility of reaching 10,000 cases in 2026, a threshold far above any annual count since the U.S. declared measles eliminated in 2000.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$6.5M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ508 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 18

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$3.2K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?

Yes40¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?

Before 203061¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ18.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 19

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$474 Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 20

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$178 Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.94¢

23 outcomes

Ɱ11.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$48.6K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 8000

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$108K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the first human step foot on Mars on exactly January 1st 2036?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.95 on Jul 31? — Above $4.95

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$184 Vol▼ 2pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ13.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "Claude" on X this week?

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$39 Vol▼ 11pts7d

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Oct 1, 2026? — Before October

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$17.6K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the OpenAI Charter be scrapped or amended by 2027?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ96 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.56 on Jul 31? — Above $4.56

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$619 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we have reached space travel by the year 2100

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ88 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?

Yes63¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

$8.8K Vol▲ 10pts5mo