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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 23 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2505 Tech Company Valuations 938 Big tech & chips 638 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,696 markets · page 23 of 196

Kalshi

Open

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.36 on Jul 31? — Above $2.36

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$408 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…2122232425…196Next ›

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba65¢

25 outcomes

$12.3K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ181 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? — Before 2035

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$7.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

Yes22¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$5.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Manifold have a team offsite in space by 2050?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.56 on Jul 31? — Above $5.56

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

$223 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? — ↑ 1600

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$21.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a baby be born on the moon before someone walks on Mars?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$4.5K Vol▼ 9pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

The field is highly concentrated on the 2050-or-earlier and 2040-or-earlier options, together commanding 39% of probability, but the long tail of earlier dates (2027–2030) sums to 31%, reflecting a belief that an LLM-based engine could beat Stockfish within a few years if a breakthrough occurs, while the 2% on 'End of 2026 or earlier' shows extreme skepticism about immediate progress.

2050 or earlier20¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ370K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 110 mph? — ≥110 mph

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 3pts5d

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 160

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$145K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will patrick finley of georgia tech [https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrickfinley/] get married by EOY 2030?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Small Exchange

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$3.1K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

$31.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$62.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Republic of the Congo

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$710 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a year where Apple does not release a new iPhone?

Despite Apple's unbroken 19-year streak of annual iPhone releases, the market assigns a 35% probability that a year will eventually be skipped, reflecting long-term uncertainty about the product's future cadence.

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ533 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? — #5

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$17.7K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 17

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$5.2K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a manned mission to Mars be launched by the year 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ530 Vol▲ 0pts4y