AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
574 markets · page 2 of 24
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The field is extremely concentrated at the top, with all 100% candidates being near-term milestones that are effectively already achieved or certain, while the long-shot 'reuse a starship' bets show high but not absolute confidence, indicating the market is pricing in technical progress but not treating any outcome as guaranteed beyond the immediate future.
137 outcomes
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on completion within six months, driven by Flight 13's success which demonstrated near-orbital capability and payload deployment, but the sharp drop-off after late 2026 reflects lingering technical and regulatory risks.
40 outcomes
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Despite Elon Musk announcing an imminent Starship launch, the market is nearly certain SpaceX will not exceed 16 launches in July, as the month is over half over with no launches yet and even a rapid-fire cadence would be insufficient.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 77% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
The market's 6% Yes reflects the immense gap between Starship's current test-flight phase and the 500-launch target, compounded by a recent FAA grounding that halts progress.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 79% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
The field is highly concentrated on July and August 2026 (78% combined), with the pre-seed funding announcement in June likely shifting confidence toward these near-term months and compressing earlier possibilities.
8 outcomes
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 96% chance