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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 179 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2461 Tech Company Valuations 917 Big tech & chips 629 Space 483 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,627 markets · page 179 of 193

Manifold· Play

Open

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Android still be a Google product in 2035?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ248 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Will Helion deliver 10 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2031?

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Will any BigLaw firm be "completely wrecked" by AI in the next year?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ785 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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Will "OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI’s Paranoid Lawfare..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ674 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ660 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Tesla acquire Uber by 2030?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will food be grown on the moon before a human lands on mars

Recent successful experiments growing crops in lunar simulant and NASA's Artemis timeline have made lunar agriculture seem imminent, while a human Mars landing remains distant with no firm date, driving the 76% probability.

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ200 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ202 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Apple officially support macOS on an iPad, or other tablet computer, by the end of 2030?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ420 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ830 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Exodus Propulsion Technologies propellantless propulsion work in space?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

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Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Ɱ15.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ57 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ294 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ643 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ641 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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AI Companion Gender Gap: Men vs Women Romantic Preference by 2030

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ133 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

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Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ18.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y