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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 178 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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All AI 2482 Tech Company Valuations 927 Big tech & chips 633 Space 494 Science 292 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,665 markets · page 178 of 195

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ23.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…176177178179180…195Next ›

Open

Will Elon Musk spend a day in outer space?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ554 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ32 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ695 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Manifold· Play

Open

When will AI pass @jim's "agents benchmark"?

202678¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ10.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI be able to read minds by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ911 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AR/VR product from Apple overtake iPhones 10 years after Vision Pro's launch?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ223 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Announcing: OpenAI's Alignment Research Blog" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexander Huth (the neuroscientist) serve as an advisor for an AI company like OpenAI OR a neuro X AI company?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ17 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

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Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ9.4K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a permanent research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ269 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

Open

Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ199 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Open

Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In exactly two years, will two shares of Applied Micro Devices (AMD) be worth more than one share of Microsoft (MSFT)?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ321 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ409 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will frontier AI effective training compute increase by a factor 10 billion between 2025 and 2035?

Yes71¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ520 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2027?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ781 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

iPhone (0%) vs Android (100%) - who uses what? MegaMarket.

Ernie100¢

64 outcomes

Ɱ10.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y