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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 176 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2496 Tech Company Valuations 934 Big tech & chips 637 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,696 markets · page 176 of 196

Manifold· Play

Open

AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ739 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…174175176177178…196Next ›

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ362 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ46 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ541 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ406 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ11.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

When will Rubin come out?

Before December 202686¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ9.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ12 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ562 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ738 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

OpenAI CEO doesn't think existential risk from AI is a serious concern in Jan 2026

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ682 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Apple source memory chips from a Chinese supplier before 2028?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ164 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ167 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ6.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ594 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Tesla P/E ratio above 259 at December 31, 2026

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ173 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ25 Vol▲ 0pts—