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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 175 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2510 Tech Company Valuations 943 Big tech & chips 639 Space 499 Science 299 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,706 markets · page 175 of 197

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a generative AI model be able to make a movie from a novel before the end of 2027?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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‹ Prev1…173174175176177…197Next ›

Open

Will Ron Jeremy live long enough for the first verified instance of human sex in space?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ81 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

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Will "Your LLM-assisted scientific breakthrough pro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ22 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ900 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Is Manifold the next google?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ6.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ136 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Google release a Pixel phone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2027?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ160 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the world's first superintelligence come from OpenAI? [M$300 liquidity subsidy]

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ964 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2042?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts15y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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By 2030, will Ai picture generators be able to do basic geometry and projections?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ452 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Tim Cook continue as CEO of Apple through 2030?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ29.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Yes41¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ26.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ237 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will software Web developers be a lower percentage of the workforce in the US in 2030 compared to 2022 ?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ473 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will the first rocket launch from the UK's SaxaVord spaceport be successful?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ138 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

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Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-5-like?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ656 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ356 Vol▲ 0pts11mo