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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 8 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

268 markets · page 8 of 12

Manifold· Play

Open

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Yes18¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ9.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Who will be the 48th president of the United States?

J. D. Vance31¢

18 outcomes

Ɱ22.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will there be an Asian-American President of the United States before 2060?

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ64 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Who will be the first woman president of the United States?

Other/none of the above59¢

17 outcomes

Ɱ13.4K Vol▲ 0pts15y

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Will there be a US president who identifies as queer by 2035?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts9y

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🥇 2028 Olympics: Will the President of the United States attend the Opening Ceremony?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ306 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will a male be elected US president in 2028?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ300 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2029?

Yes23¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ150 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will the final president of the United States be inaugurated on January 20th, 2025?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ899 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the first woman president of the United States be a Republican?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ559 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Elon musk, JD Vance, or more than 2 members of Trump administration follow https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil?s=09 by EO

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ227 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts11y

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Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have been photographed in a room or near a US president?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ34 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Matthew McConaughey ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

Despite past flirtations with a run, Matthew McConaughey has not taken concrete steps toward a presidential campaign since his 2024 statement, and the market heavily discounts his chances, reflecting the long odds for celebrities without political experience.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will Gavin Newsom become president by 2032?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ348 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Will Kamala Harris become President before February 2029?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ869 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will JD Vance be US vice president on January 1st 2029?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ8K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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JD Vance Receives Cosmetic Jaw or Face Surgery Before 2028

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ132 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Elon Musk run for US President before 2035?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Will JD Vance and Usha Vance announce a divorce by the end of 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will US president Donald Trump visit Iran in 2026

Despite the Trump-Netanyahu meeting addressing Iran escalation and a rejected US cease-fire, the odds reflect the near impossibility of a US presidential visit to a hostile nation with no diplomatic relations, making the 9% a speculative long shot.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will JD Vance be scored as having a higher % of lies than the average Democrat on PolitiFact by EOY 2026?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ115 Vol▲ 0pts5mo