Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2029?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 23% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 23% right now.
Despite recent political rhetoric around impeachment and the 25th Amendment, the market heavily discounts removal due to historically high barriers and no clear scandal, but the talk itself marks a shift in elite discourse.
📊 Base rate: No US president has ever been removed from office through impeachment or the 25th Amendment in the nation's history.
What's driving it
- • Democrats have grown bolder about removing Trump after his Iran threats (PBS, Apr 9), raising speculation about impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation.
- • Tulsi Gabbard sent criminal referrals to DOJ related to Trump's first impeachment (CBS News, Apr 15), keeping legal pressure alive.
- • Explanatory articles on impeachment and the 25th Amendment (Britannica, PBS, Apr 6) indicate renewed public interest in removal mechanisms.
The case for YES
- • If Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, they could initiate impeachment proceedings against a Republican president.
- • A president's severe mental or physical incapacity could trigger the 25th Amendment, especially if Cabinet members act.
- • A major scandal or crime directly implicating the president could build bipartisan support for removal, as seen in past impeachment inquiries.
The case for NO
- • Historical precedent shows no president has been removed; even serious scandals (Watergate, Lewinsky) ended in resignation or acquittal.
- • Removal requires a supermajority in the Senate, which is highly unlikely given current polarization and narrow majorities.
- • The 25th Amendment requires a majority of the Cabinet and two-thirds of Congress, an incredibly high bar that has never been approached.
What to watch
- • 2026 midterm elections (November 2026): If Democrats retake the House, Yes odds likely rise; if Republicans strengthen hold, No odds increase.
- • Introduction of a formal impeachment resolution in the House: likely to temporarily increase Yes odds.
- • A public statement from a Cabinet member about invoking the 25th Amendment: would sharply increase Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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