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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 7 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,216 markets · page 7 of 259

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ862 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…56789…259Next ›

Peace in the Middle East

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$34.9K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Polymarket

Open

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$115K Vol▲ 1pts4d

Futuur

Open

Late night shows cancelled in 2026

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon13¢

4 outcomes

$11 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ594 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Karoline / Leavitt

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$30.7K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Polymarket

Open

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Donavan McKinney91¢

32 outcomes

$97K Vol▲ 3pts8d

Futuur

Open

Michigan's Senate election winner

Democratic Party76¢

2 outcomes

$1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ11.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? — Before Aug 8, 2026

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$83.6K Vol▼ 5pts13d

Polymarket

Open

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner

Michael Carbonara78¢

13 outcomes

$23.7K Vol▼ 4pts23d

Futuur

Open

Arizona Governor election winner

Democratic Party77¢

2 outcomes

$1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

South Carolina Senate winner?

Republican party87¢

2 outcomes

$586K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

What percent of Project 2025 will be accomplished by the end of Trump's term?

[75%, 80%)22¢

14 outcomes

Ɱ9.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Despite Iran's withdrawal from the MOU and continued blockade, the market overwhelmingly expects the US to not formally announce its own withdrawal by the July 31 deadline, reflecting a belief that Washington will avoid unilateral escalation and let the framework lapse quietly.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$640K Vol▲ 1pts5d

Futuur

Open

What will be Donald Trump's net approval on December 31, 2026?

Between -20 and -15.1 percentage points50¢

5 outcomes

$0 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Jul 2026?

098¢

5 outcomes

$533K Vol▲ 1pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump run in the 2028 United States presidential election?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ12.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$357K Vol▼ 7pts20d

Futuur

Open

Will Section 230 of the CDA (Communications Decency Act) be _____ in 2026?

Revised or replaced with new legislation12¢

2 outcomes

$0 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

With only six days until the Aug 1 deadline, the odds of a proof-of-citizenship voting law passing are nearly zero, reflecting both the legislative calendar and recent judicial blocks.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$598K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ130K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

The market heavily favors 'No' because Iran has repeatedly refused to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, and recent diplomatic signals suggest a deal may be signed without that concession, making a full surrender by year-end unlikely.

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$2M Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Georgia Senate winner?

Jon Ossoff90¢

2 outcomes

$929K Vol▲ 0pts1y