Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
432 markets · page 6 of 18
30 outcomes
Yes ≈ 9% chance
President Ali's active governance schedule and absence of any departure rumors make his exit before year-end extremely implausible, despite the market's binary framing.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
3 outcomes
Milei's radical proposal to adopt a U.S.-style government shutdown mechanism signals a strategy of brinkmanship that could paradoxically strengthen his hold on power by framing fiscal crisis as structural reform, while IMF engagement provides a stability buffer. The 4% Yes odds reflect a market that sees institutional gridlock as less threatening to his tenure than his own policy volatility.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
35 outcomes
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
The market's 2% odds reflect Trump's age (102 in 2048) and the absence of any precedent for electing a candidate over 80, not the recent headlines about visa denials or mail-voting rulings, which are irrelevant to a race 22 years away.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The market is pricing near-zero chance of Bukele leaving early because his party has already moved to secure a third term via constitutional change, making an exit all but impossible barring something extraordinary.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
DeSantis is actively positioning for a 2028 run but remains a long shot (7%) because he faces a hostile MAGA base after feuding with Trump and lacks a clear national path after his 2024 primary loss.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Erdoğan is deeply engaged in high-profile NATO diplomacy and domestic institution-building, showing no signs of an imminent departure; the 4% Yes price reflects a thin tail risk of a health or political crisis, not any active transition process.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Rodrigo Paz Pereira was just sworn in on June 22, 2026, so the 10% Yes probability reflects the extreme unlikelihood that a brand-new president would leave office within six months, despite ongoing protests and political unrest.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Despite a recent French court seizure of a presidential jet and family wedding headlines, the market overwhelmingly expects Sassou Nguesso to remain in office because he was just sworn in for a new five-year term after winning 95% of a tightly controlled vote, making an early departure before January 1, 2027 highly improbable.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance